Majority of independents and double haters think Trump should end 2024 campaign: POLL

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(NEW YORK) — Former President Donald Trump’s guilty verdict on all 34 counts in his hush-money trial appears to have a majority of independents and “double haters,” those who have an unfavorable view of both Trump and President Joe Biden, feeling that the former president should end his bid for the White House, according to a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll — a number that could have a ripple effect on the election in November.

Among independents, 52% said they believed Trump should end his 2024 presidential campaign and within the even more specified group of “double haters,” 67% said they felt the same way, according to the ABC News/Ipsos poll published on Sunday. The poll was conducted using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel.

In an election year, the votes of independents as well as those aligned with neither candidate are highly sought after by both campaigns. The votes could make a significant impact on the 2024 presidential race that will likely be decided at the margins, especially within crucial battleground states.

Overall, 72% of Republicans, 6% of Democrats and 23% of independents have a favorable view of Trump following his conviction.

For Biden, 4% of Republicans have a favorable view of him after Trump’s conviction, while 72% of Democrats and 24% of independents do.

The poll also found that 50% of Americans think Trump’s verdict was correct; 27% said it was not and 23% responded that they don’t know.

Almost half — 49% — of the country said they think Trump should end his campaign based on just the verdict, the ABC News/Ipsos poll found. One in six Republicans — 16% — said Trump should end his campaign because of his conviction. More than three-quarters — 79% — of Democrats think he should suspend his bid, according to the poll.

Another poll from Reuters/Ipsos that came out Friday tracked the immediate political fallout of the verdict.

That poll found that more than half of registered voters said the verdict does not impact their likelihood of voting for Trump, but that around one in 10 Republican voters said it makes them much or somewhat less likely to vote for him.

Among independents, 16% said Trump’s guilty verdict makes them more likely to vote for him, but 26% said it made them less likely to vote for him. Fifty-eight percent said the conviction would not influence their likelihood of voting for Trump.

In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, 11% of Republicans said that the conviction would make them less likely to vote for Trump.

METHODOLOGY

This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted using the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® May 31-June 1, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 781 U.S. adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.7 points, including the design effect, for the full sample. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls. Partisan divisions are 31-29-32 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents. See the poll’s topline results and details on the methodology here.

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