This is the regular season game of the week year decade.
Patrick Mahomes and the reigning Super Bowl Champion Chiefs will head to Baltimore to take on the 2019 MVP, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. The game sells itself, really. These are the undisputed top two teams in the NFL. What many expected to see in last year’s AFC Championship game will take place in front of a national audience on the biggest stage of regular season football.
Last season, the Ravens got caught with their pants down. Derrick Henry exploited an average run defense, and all it took was a few deep balls by the red-hot Ryan Tanehill for the Cinderella-Titans to knock off the 14-2 Ravens in the first round of the playoffs. Lamar Jackson hadn’t had to play from behind nearly all season, so when down early, the offense stumbled to catch up to the quick Tennessee start.
For the Chiefs, it was the complete opposite. Despite being down double-digits in every postseason game, including a shell-shocking 24-0 deficit in the first half against the Texans, Kansas City would win the Super Bowl with incredible comeback performances from Patrick Mahomes.
Coming into this season? Both the Ravens and Chiefs are back and they’re better. The Ravens have had another year to develop Jackson, and a second straight first round exit was likely the wake up call to work on his passing game against a defense that knows he has to throw the ball. An aerial attack without the threat of the run is crucial for the success of this Ravens team. Despite losing S Earl Thomas, Baltimore acquired DE Calais Campbell to sure up their pass rush and run defense. Predictably, the ravens also had one of the best drafts in the NFL with getting both LB Patrick Queen from LSU and RB JK Dobbins from Ohio State.
The Chiefs somehow got more dangerous. Their franchise tagged Chris Jones, retained pretty much all of their weapons, and then got a bombshell running back in the NFL draft. Clyde Edwards-Helaire broke onto the scene on NFL opening night. He gave this Kansas City team a tad bit more balance.
Through two weeks, neither team has faced tough competition. The Chiefs stumbled last week, likely looking forward to this matchup with the Ravens. Despite an overall bad game, sure enough, Patrick Mahomes made the necessary throws in crunch time to set up Harrison Butker to win the game with a field goal.
The Ravens haven’t slowed down. They’re certainly the more hungry team, being that they haven’t tasted the same success that Kansas City has had. In fact, here has been sportsbooks offering odds on whether or not the Ravens go 16-0. A pair of decisive wins haven’t really proven much, other than a noticeable improvement in the run defense when they kicked off the season stifling the Browns run game.
The oddsmakers in Vegas have set the line at Ravens-3.5 with the over/under at 54.5. This means they think Ravens are narrowly a better team than the Chiefs, because homefield advantage is usually accounted for 2/3 points.
Prediction:
The Ravens will get out to a quick 14-0 lead after the first quarter. Kansas City will adjust in the second quarter, scoring 10 points to end the half. Another quick offensive burst from the Ravens on the ground will get the Ravens out to a 28-10 lead midway through the third. Then, Mahomes does what Mahomes does. The Chiefs pair a couple of methodical touchdown drives with a couple of stops at midfield for the Ravens. Chiefs get the 2-point conversion to bring the deficit to 3. With 4 minutes remaining and the Ravens holding the ball. Lamar Jackson makes a couple of game defining first-downs out of nothing to drain the clock and eventually win the game.
Ravens win, 28-25.
